Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 34.400512 37.146539 40.134949 43.652275 47.710001 52.283189 57.883761
2025-05-11 30.119694 33.733590 37.922145 43.217059 49.856114 58.087094 69.378766
2025-05-18 27.265047 31.254829 36.072558 42.466552 50.977727 62.326591 79.423329
2025-05-25 25.142080 29.311348 34.500111 41.646143 51.618703 65.743662 88.859173
2025-06-01 23.528137 27.802506 33.253751 40.995617 52.246279 69.063880 98.828508
2025-06-08 22.040968 26.312965 31.864080 39.939267 52.061418 71.010402 106.925189
2025-06-15 21.571650 26.099075 32.129059 41.188885 55.413724 79.125874 129.029775
2025-06-22 20.718305 25.299445 31.507036 41.050972 56.536983 83.647681 145.788350
2025-06-29 19.805025 24.356002 30.605192 40.387775 56.683631 86.387596 159.732935
2025-07-06 18.848526 23.298702 29.468803 39.256441 55.884095 87.145211 169.090895
2025-07-13 18.621301 23.242171 29.768034 40.388712 59.144508 96.702088 208.847209
2025-07-20 18.337968 23.084837 29.899139 41.248944 62.025581 106.248131 257.911447
2025-07-27 17.910708 22.712088 29.702272 41.582944 64.041939 114.643441 314.760512
2025-08-03 17.339792 22.103686 29.110137 41.196017 64.597542 119.691072 365.543339
2025-08-10 16.742741 21.429713 28.377912 40.503874 64.437676 122.856856 413.171555
2025-08-17 16.173889 20.774061 27.640285 39.744984 64.042668 125.308128 463.241338
2025-08-24 15.677945 20.207944 27.016153 39.142595 63.909325 128.529318 529.928393
2025-08-31 15.132654 19.548324 26.213641 38.163383 62.842113 128.689376 573.349749
2025-09-07 15.065624 19.607606 26.565396 39.321618 66.706125 145.916498 905.635213
2025-09-14 14.743993 19.264608 26.243917 39.193876 67.589603 153.604538 1211.317052
2025-09-21 14.346480 18.791275 25.687132 38.579293 67.233025 156.693801 1487.427183
2025-09-28 13.886387 18.207982 24.926927 37.529751 65.706942 154.871963 1611.591405
2025-10-05 13.842548 18.268187 25.238463 38.580161 69.534162 176.390800 4168.629512